New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dougie HamiltonGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Dougie HamiltonPoints2
Rangers- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:56Jack Hughes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (23), Dougie Hamilton (16)5–1
- P213:29Chris Kreider Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (13), Artemi Panarin (16)4–1
- P212:38Jack Hughes Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (8), Jesper Bratt (22)4–0
- P29:04Dougie Hamilton Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (22), Jesper Bratt (21)3–0
- P17:10Dawson Mercer Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (7)2–0
- P11:27Jesper Bratt Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (5), Johnathan Kovacevic (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:27Jesper Bratt Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (5), Johnathan Kovacevic (9)NJ 1 – 0 NYR · NJ 53% → 67% +14NJ 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P17:10Dawson Mercer Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (7)NJ 2 – 0 NYR · NJ 68% → 80% +12NJ 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P29:04Dougie Hamilton Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (22), Jesper Bratt (21)NJ 3 – 0 NYR · NJ 86% → 94% +8NJ 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P212:38Jack Hughes Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (8), Jesper Bratt (22)NJ 4 – 0 NYR · NJ 95% → 99% +3NJ 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P213:29Chris Kreider Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (13), Artemi Panarin (16)NJ 4 – 1 NYR · NYR 1% → 4% +3NYR 1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML NJ -125 / NYR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 42.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −7 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +51 Elo | NYR 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.9%3rd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 4th of 329–4 | Road vs home | 6–512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–14 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 0–4 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.