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New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, MS2, FanDuel SN South

Away

Rangers

12-8-1

3–4

at

Home

Hurricanes

16-5-1

NYR 38%CAR 62%

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Lenovo Center · ESPN+, MS2, FanDuel SN South

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.

CAR favored NYR favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3CAR50%NYR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers

Scoring summary

  • P312:01Jackson Blake Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (5), Jack Roslovic (2)3–4
  • P39:54Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Eric Robinson (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (12)3–3
  • P218:49Adam Edstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (9), Adam Fox (18)3–2
  • P29:13Brett Berard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (9), Zac Jones (6)2–2
  • P21:12Seth Jarvis Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (25), Sebastian Aho (17)1–2
  • P117:38Jonny Brodzinski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (1), Ryan Lindgren (2)1–1
  • P14:53Jack Drury Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (24), Dmitry Orlov (11)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P21:12Seth Jarvis Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (25), Sebastian Aho (17)NYR 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 60% → 76% +16
  2. P29:13Brett Berard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (9), Zac Jones (6)NYR 2 – 2 CAR · NYR 23% → 41% +18
  3. P218:49Adam Edstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (9), Adam Fox (18)NYR 3 – 2 CAR · NYR 43% → 67% +24
  4. P39:54Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Eric Robinson (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (12)NYR 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 22% → 55% +33
  5. P312:01Jackson Blake Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (5), Jack Roslovic (2)NYR 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 55% → 87% +32

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 62%

SolidHit
NYR 38%CAR 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
CAR 62%
ML NYR +155 / CAR -185
Pre-line forecast
CAR 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 57%
Ratings vs. market
−5.6 pts
CAR: Elo 56.7%, market 62.3%
Fair odds
CAR -166
NYR +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYR 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYRCARWhy
Team rating15461576Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−6−23NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.58 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +47 EloCAR 56.7%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 58.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 58.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 62.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
NYRStatCAR
11th of 323.4Goals scored4.03rd of 32
9th of 322.8Goals allowed2.66th of 32
9th of 32+0.6Margin+1.42nd of 32
24th of 3248.1%Shot share57.5%1st of 32
2nd of 3292.1%Save percentage90.2%17th of 32
13th of 325–5Last 106–46th of 32
4th of 327–3Road vs home8–12nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersHurricanes
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYRCAR
Puck line8–1214–7
Last 103–76–4
Favorite7–1113–6
Underdog1–11–1
Overs–unders10–108–13
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYR 6–3 CAR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.