St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Zack BolducGoals2
- Dylan HollowayAssists2
- Zack BolducPoints2
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals2
- Brett BerardAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:15Pavel Buchnevich Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (1), Ryan Suter (4)5–2
- P38:25Zack Bolduc Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (8), Dylan Holloway (6)4–2
- P31:12Brayden Schenn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (2)3–2
- P27:20Will Cuylle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (11), Brett Berard (1)2–2
- P24:30Zack Bolduc Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (4), Dylan Holloway (5)2–1
- P111:45Jordan Kyrou Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (7)1–1
- P18:47Will Cuylle Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Kaapo Kakko (9), Zac Jones (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:45Jordan Kyrou Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (7)STL 1 – 1 NYR · STL 22% → 36% +14STL 22% → 36%+14 pts
- P24:30Zack Bolduc Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (4), Dylan Holloway (5)STL 2 – 1 NYR · STL 38% → 57% +19STL 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P27:20Will Cuylle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (11), Brett Berard (1)STL 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 42% → 62% +20NYR 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P31:12Brayden Schenn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (2)STL 3 – 2 NYR · STL 41% → 67% +25STL 41% → 67%+25 pts
- P38:25Zack Bolduc Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (8), Dylan Holloway (6)STL 4 – 2 NYR · STL 74% → 93% +19STL 74% → 93%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 66%
- ML STL +180 / NYR -215
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 65.3%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYR -191
- STL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −5 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +110 Elo | NYR 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 68.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.67th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.88th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 48.6%24th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–7 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–10 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–1 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.