Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:36Kaapo Kakko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (11), Zac Jones (7)3–4
- P314:07Nick Suzuki Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (13), Cole Caufield (6)3–3
- P34:16Cole Caufield Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (13)2–3
- P217:03Mika Zibanejad Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (15), Adam Fox (20)1–3
- P119:56Vincent Trocheck Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (9), Ryan Lindgren (3)1–2
- P111:47Mike Matheson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (5), Juraj Slafkovsky (12)1–1
- P19:02Artemi Panarin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (19), Mika Zibanejad (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:02Artemi Panarin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (19), Mika Zibanejad (12)MTL 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 61% → 75% +14NYR 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P111:47Mike Matheson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (5), Juraj Slafkovsky (12)MTL 1 – 1 NYR · MTL 25% → 39% +14MTL 25% → 39%+14 pts
- P119:56Vincent Trocheck Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (9), Ryan Lindgren (3)MTL 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 60% → 76% +16NYR 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P314:07Nick Suzuki Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (13), Cole Caufield (6)MTL 3 – 3 NYR · MTL 10% → 46% +36MTL 10% → 46%+36 pts
- P319:36Kaapo Kakko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (11), Zac Jones (7)MTL 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 51% → >99% +49NYR 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 62%
- ML MTL +155 / NYR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 64.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -166
- MTL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +106 Elo | NYR 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 69.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 31st of 3244.2% | Shot share | 47.5%27th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 92.0%3rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 5–514th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–11 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.