Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists1
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals1
- Zachary Aston-ReeseAssists1
- Mathieu OlivierPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:44Nick Suzuki Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (12)4–3
- P312:22Zach Werenski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (6), Dmitri Voronkov (3)3–3
- P38:24Emil Heineman Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jake Evans (7), Joel Armia (8)3–2
- P26:34Cole Caufield Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (11)2–2
- P24:27Yegor Chinakhov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (7), Kent Johnson (6)1–2
- P113:00Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:08Mathieu Olivier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (15), Zach Aston-Reese (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:27Yegor Chinakhov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (7), Kent Johnson (6)MTL 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 60% → 77% +17CBJ 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P26:34Cole Caufield Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (11)MTL 2 – 2 CBJ · MTL 23% → 40% +17MTL 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P38:24Emil Heineman Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jake Evans (7), Joel Armia (8)MTL 3 – 2 CBJ · MTL 44% → 75% +31MTL 44% → 75%+31 pts
- P312:22Zach Werenski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (6), Dmitri Voronkov (3)MTL 3 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 18% → 55% +36CBJ 18% → 55%+36 pts
- OT0:44Nick Suzuki Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (12)MTL 4 – 3 CBJ · MTL 46% → 90% +44MTL 46% → 90%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 63%
- ML MTL +160 / CBJ -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CBJ: Elo 63.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -170
- MTL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | 0 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +99 Elo | CBJ 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 31st of 3244.0% | Shot share | 52.5%8th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.1%31st of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–11 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–0 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.