New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Braden SchneiderAssists1
- Braden SchneiderPoints1
Flyers- Bobby BrinkGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Bobby BrinkPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:32Travis Konecny Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (10)1–3
- P210:20Vincent Trocheck Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (10), Braden Schneider (6)1–2
- P14:24Travis Konecny Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (8), Rasmus Ristolainen (6)0–2
- P13:14Bobby Brink Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:14Bobby Brink Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (3)NYR 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 42% → 57% +15PHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P14:24Travis Konecny Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (8), Rasmus Ristolainen (6)NYR 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 57% → 71% +14PHI 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P210:20Vincent Trocheck Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (10), Braden Schneider (6)NYR 1 – 2 PHI · NYR 19% → 36% +17NYR 19% → 36%+17 pts
- P319:32Travis Konecny Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (10)NYR 1 – 3 PHI · PHI >99% → 100% +0PHI >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 58%
- ML NYR -155 / PHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 56.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −12 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +48 Elo | NYR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.626th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 88.8%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–4 | Road vs home | 5–724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–12 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.