Philadelphia Flyers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints2
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:31Sean Couturier Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (16), Rasmus Ristolainen (5)3–2
- P319:48Morgan Frost Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (9), Sean Couturier (7)2–2
- P116:18Ryan O'Reilly Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (4), Brady Skjei (7)1–2
- P112:46Scott Laughton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (7)1–1
- P16:17Roman Josi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:17Roman Josi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (5)PHI 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 61% → 75% +14NSH 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P112:46Scott Laughton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (7)PHI 1 – 1 NSH · PHI 25% → 40% +15PHI 25% → 40%+15 pts
- P116:18Ryan O'Reilly Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (4), Brady Skjei (7)PHI 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 60% → 75% +15NSH 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P319:48Morgan Frost Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (9), Sean Couturier (7)PHI 2 – 2 NSH · PHI <1% → 49% +49PHI <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT2:31Sean Couturier Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (16), Rasmus Ristolainen (5)PHI 3 – 2 NSH · PHI 48% → 96% +48PHI 48% → 96%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 61%
- ML PHI +150 / NSH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- NSH: Elo 58.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NSH -159
- PHI +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +62 Elo | NSH 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%12th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.