Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Samuel GirardAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Red WingsScoring summary
- P218:13Lucas Raymond Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Dylan Larkin (9)2–1
- P22:44Cale Makar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (32), Mikko Rantanen (21)2–0
- P110:48Valeri Nichushkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (14), Casey Mittelstadt (12)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:48Valeri Nichushkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (14), Casey Mittelstadt (12)COL 1 – 0 DET · COL 64% → 77% +14COL 64% → 77%+14 pts
- P22:44Cale Makar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (32), Mikko Rantanen (21)COL 2 – 0 DET · COL 78% → 89% +11COL 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P218:13Lucas Raymond Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Dylan Larkin (9)COL 2 – 1 DET · DET 7% → 20% +13DET 7% → 20%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 65%
- ML COL -210 / DET +175
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- COL: Elo 52.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -186
- DET +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −22 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.56 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +16 Elo | COL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 43.5%32nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%9th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 9th of 327–6 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–20 | 15–11 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–10 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.