Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Simon EdvinssonAssists2
- Simon EdvinssonPoints2
Bruins- Nikita ZadorovGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Nikita ZadorovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:15Pavel Zacha Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (15)2–3
- P39:32Justin Brazeau Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mason Lohrei (8), Trent Frederic (6)2–2
- P31:19Lucas Raymond Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (4), Simon Edvinsson (9)2–1
- P19:15Nikita Zadorov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (10)1–1
- P17:31Lucas Raymond Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:31Lucas Raymond Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (8)DET 1 – 0 BOS · DET 40% → 55% +15DET 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P19:15Nikita Zadorov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (10)DET 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 44% → 60% +16BOS 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P31:19Lucas Raymond Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (4), Simon Edvinsson (9)DET 2 – 1 BOS · DET 44% → 69% +25DET 44% → 69%+25 pts
- P39:32Justin Brazeau Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mason Lohrei (8), Trent Frederic (6)DET 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 22% → 55% +32BOS 22% → 55%+32 pts
- OT2:15Pavel Zacha Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (15)DET 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 52% → 96% +44BOS 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML DET +145 / BOS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −33 | −7 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.83 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +78 Elo | BOS 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.626th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.8% | Shot share | 49.4%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 17th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 7–818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–11 | 7–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.