Vancouver Canucks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals3
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Jake DeBruskPoints4
Red Wings- Jonatan BerggrenGoals1
- Marco KasperAssists2
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:00Jake DeBrusk Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (14), Quinn Hughes (23)5–4
- P316:40Erik Brannstrom Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (13), Jake DeBrusk (9)4–4
- P34:50Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (2), Marco Kasper (5)3–4
- P32:24Michael Rasmussen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (18), Dylan Larkin (8)3–3
- P217:47Pius Suter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (2)3–2
- P26:38Alex DeBrincat Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (7), Lucas Raymond (17)2–2
- P21:06Jake DeBrusk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (22), Brock Boeser (8)2–1
- P20:23Jake DeBrusk Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (12), Quinn Hughes (21)1–1
- P113:57Jonatan Berggren Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (4), Marco Kasper (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:47Pius Suter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (2)VAN 3 – 2 DET · VAN 53% → 75% +22VAN 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P32:24Michael Rasmussen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (18), Dylan Larkin (8)VAN 3 – 3 DET · DET 23% → 48% +24DET 23% → 48%+24 pts
- P34:50Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (2), Marco Kasper (5)VAN 3 – 4 DET · DET 48% → 75% +27DET 48% → 75%+27 pts
- P316:40Erik Brannstrom Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (13), Jake DeBrusk (9)VAN 4 – 4 DET · VAN 6% → 51% +45VAN 6% → 51%+45 pts
- OT4:00Jake DeBrusk Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (14), Quinn Hughes (23)VAN 5 – 4 DET · VAN 51% → >99% +49VAN 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 54%
- ML VAN -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 49.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +4 Elo | DET 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 43.5%32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%8th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–2 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–12 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.