Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Bruins- Cole KoepkeGoals1
- Mark KastelicAssists2
- Cole KoepkePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:46Cole Koepke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (5), Mark Kastelic (6)3–6
- P36:38Cole Caufield Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (15), Lane Hutson (15)3–5
- P32:28Emil Heineman Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (8), Lane Hutson (14)2–5
- P30:21Charlie Coyle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (5)1–5
- P25:42Cole Caufield Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Arber Xhekaj (3), Nick Suzuki (14)1–4
- P20:38Charlie McAvoy Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none0–4
- P112:55Charlie Coyle Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mark Kastelic (5)0–3
- P112:40David Pastrnak Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Pavel Zacha (6), Morgan Geekie (4)0–2
- P111:45Charlie McAvoy Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Jordan Oesterle (1), Trent Frederic (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:45Charlie McAvoy Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Jordan Oesterle (1), Trent Frederic (5)MTL 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 68% → 81% +13BOS 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P112:40David Pastrnak Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Pavel Zacha (6), Morgan Geekie (4)MTL 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 81% → 90% +9BOS 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P112:55Charlie Coyle Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mark Kastelic (5)MTL 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 90% → 95% +6BOS 90% → 95%+6 pts
- P20:38Charlie McAvoy Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneMTL 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 96% → 99% +3BOS 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P36:38Cole Caufield Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (15), Lane Hutson (15)MTL 3 – 5 BOS · MTL <1% → 4% +3MTL <1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 69%
- ML MTL +215 / BOS -260
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 69.0%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -228
- MTL +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +3 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +139 Elo | BOS 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.331st of 32 |
| 31st of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 31st of 3244.5% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–8 | Road vs home | 6–821st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–11 | 6–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–4 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.