Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Philip TomasinoGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Philip TomasinoPoints1
Bruins- Tyler JohnsonAssists1
- Tyler JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:26Philip Tomasino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (17)2–1
- P219:59Rickard Rakell Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (16), Erik Karlsson (14)1–1
- P11:24Charlie Coyle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (4), Tyler Johnson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:24Charlie Coyle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (4), Tyler Johnson (2)PIT 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 61% → 74% +13BOS 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P219:59Rickard Rakell Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (16), Erik Karlsson (14)PIT 1 – 1 BOS · PIT 22% → 44% +22PIT 22% → 44%+22 pts
- P37:26Philip Tomasino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (17)PIT 2 – 1 BOS · PIT 45% → 75% +30PIT 45% → 75%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML PIT +145 / BOS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -154
- PIT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +2 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +79 Elo | BOS 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.431st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.4 | Margin | −0.828th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 49.4%21st of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–8 | Road vs home | 6–718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–15 | 6–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.