Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists3
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:44Andrei Svechnikov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (6), Sebastian Aho (21)3–5
- P318:13Valeri Nichushkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (31), Cale Makar (26)3–4
- P317:49Martin Necas Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (13), Shayne Gostisbehere (16)2–4
- P314:41Valeri Nichushkin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (4), Devon Toews (8)2–3
- P26:41Jack Roslovic Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (12), Sean Walker (3)1–3
- P24:09Seth Jarvis Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (20), Andrei Svechnikov (11)1–2
- P116:05Eric Robinson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (6), Martin Necas (27)1–1
- P19:13Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:13Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (25)COL 1 – 0 CAR · COL 43% → 59% +16COL 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P116:05Eric Robinson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (6), Martin Necas (27)COL 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 39% → 56% +17CAR 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P24:09Seth Jarvis Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (20), Andrei Svechnikov (11)COL 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 56% → 73% +17CAR 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P26:41Jack Roslovic Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (12), Sean Walker (3)COL 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 73% → 87% +13CAR 73% → 87%+13 pts
- P314:41Valeri Nichushkin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (4), Devon Toews (8)COL 2 – 3 CAR · COL <1% → 10% +9COL <1% → 10%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML COL +125 / CAR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +11 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +78 Elo | CAR 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.7% | Shot share | 55.9%2nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%26th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 9–36th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–19 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 13–10 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–10 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–1 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.