Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists2
- Aaron EkbladPoints2
Hurricanes- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:53Sam Bennett Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (7), Eetu Luostarinen (7)6–3
- P39:08Anton Lundell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (6), Aaron Ekblad (12)5–3
- P34:58A.J. Greer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (7)4–3
- P217:18Eric Robinson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jalen Chatfield (6), Jackson Blake (3)3–3
- P26:24Sean Walker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (14)3–2
- P111:21Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (12), Aaron Ekblad (11)3–1
- P19:05Sam Reinhart Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (17)2–1
- P15:42Seth Jarvis Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (13)1–1
- P12:26Jesper Boqvist Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:05Sam Reinhart Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (17)FLA 2 – 1 CAR · FLA 41% → 57% +16FLA 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P26:24Sean Walker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (14)FLA 3 – 2 CAR · CAR 22% → 38% +17CAR 22% → 38%+17 pts
- P217:18Eric Robinson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jalen Chatfield (6), Jackson Blake (3)FLA 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 33% → 56% +23CAR 33% → 56%+23 pts
- P34:58A.J. Greer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (7)FLA 4 – 3 CAR · FLA 45% → 73% +28FLA 45% → 73%+28 pts
- P39:08Anton Lundell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (6), Aaron Ekblad (12)FLA 5 – 3 CAR · FLA 77% → 95% +17FLA 77% → 95%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML FLA +140 / CAR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -149
- FLA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.5 – 3.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −20 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +42 Elo | CAR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 4.02nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 57.6%1st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 9–11st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–12 | 14–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 13–7 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–8 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–2 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.