Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:32Sam Bennett Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (12), Matthew Tkachuk (11)1–5
- P314:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (11), Evan Rodrigues (6)1–4
- P218:31Mitch Marner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P217:04Sam Reinhart Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (16)0–3
- P15:36Mackie Samoskevich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (5)0–2
- P14:46Aleksander Barkov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (10), Carter Verhaeghe (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:46Aleksander Barkov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (10), Carter Verhaeghe (11)TOR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 58% → 72% +14FLA 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P15:36Mackie Samoskevich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (5)TOR 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 72% → 84% +11FLA 72% → 84%+11 pts
- P217:04Sam Reinhart Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (16)TOR 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 91% → 97% +7FLA 91% → 97%+7 pts
- P218:31Mitch Marner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 3 FLA · TOR 2% → 9% +6TOR 2% → 9%+6 pts
- P314:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (11), Evan Rodrigues (6)TOR 1 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +1FLA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML TOR +135 / FLA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -143
- TOR +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | −1 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +33 Elo | FLA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–8 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.