Seattle Kraken at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists2
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Hurricanes- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Eric RobinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:03Brandon Tanev Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ryan Winterton (1), Brandon Montour (10)4–2
- P310:48Yanni Gourde Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (10), Matty Beniers (9)3–2
- P35:43Martin Necas Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (19), Shayne Gostisbehere (15)2–2
- P25:56Eeli Tolvanen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (9), Vince Dunn (3)2–1
- P14:56Eric Robinson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (26)1–1
- P10:19Jaden Schwartz Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (8), Matty Beniers (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:19Jaden Schwartz Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (8), Matty Beniers (8)SEA 1 – 0 CAR · SEA 29% → 43% +14SEA 29% → 43%+14 pts
- P14:56Eric Robinson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (26)SEA 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 70% +14CAR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P25:56Eeli Tolvanen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (9), Vince Dunn (3)SEA 2 – 1 CAR · SEA 34% → 53% +19SEA 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P35:43Martin Necas Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (19), Shayne Gostisbehere (15)SEA 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 32% → 61% +29CAR 32% → 61%+29 pts
- P310:48Yanni Gourde Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (10), Matty Beniers (9)SEA 3 – 2 CAR · SEA 41% → 76% +35SEA 41% → 76%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 71%
- ML SEA +230 / CAR -280
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 70.3%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -243
- SEA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 3.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +14 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +150 Elo | CAR 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 74.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 56.4%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–7 | Road vs home | 9–23rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–13 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 13–9 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.