Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints2
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Shane WrightAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:55Trevor Zegras Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (6), Mason McTavish (7)5–2
- P219:23Cutter Gauthier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (3)4–2
- P210:02Alex Killorn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (6)3–2
- P28:58Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (3)2–2
- P116:34Eeli Tolvanen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (7), Brandon Tanev (4)2–1
- P112:43Brett Leason Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (7), Isac Lundestrom (2)2–0
- P18:23Frank Vatrano Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:43Brett Leason Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (7), Isac Lundestrom (2)ANA 2 – 0 SEA · ANA 53% → 69% +16ANA 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P116:34Eeli Tolvanen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (7), Brandon Tanev (4)ANA 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 29% → 45% +16SEA 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P28:58Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (3)ANA 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 40% → 60% +20SEA 40% → 60%+20 pts
- P210:02Alex Killorn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (6)ANA 3 – 2 SEA · ANA 40% → 60% +20ANA 40% → 60%+20 pts
- P219:23Cutter Gauthier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (3)ANA 4 – 2 SEA · ANA 66% → 85% +19ANA 66% → 85%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML ANA +170 / SEA -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -180
- ANA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.3 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +8 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +98 Elo | SEA 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.820th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 30th of 3244.6% | Shot share | 49.2%22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 7–510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–6 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–15 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–5 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.