Seattle Kraken at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Brandon MontourPoints1
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:26Brandon Montour Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (5), Yanni Gourde (6)1–2
- P26:03Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (6), Anze Kopitar (18)0–2
- P24:19Adrian Kempe Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (5), Anze Kopitar (17)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:19Adrian Kempe Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (5), Anze Kopitar (17)SEA 0 – 1 LA · LA 58% → 75% +17LA 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P26:03Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (6), Anze Kopitar (18)SEA 0 – 2 LA · LA 75% → 88% +13LA 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P318:26Brandon Montour Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (5), Yanni Gourde (6)SEA 1 – 2 LA · SEA <1% → 1% +1SEA <1% → 1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML SEA +145 / LA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- LA: Elo 60.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LA -154
- SEA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +16 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +73 Elo | LA 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 54.0%6th of 32 |
| 10th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–9 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.