Seattle Kraken at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals1
- Ryker EvansAssists2
- Shane WrightPoints2
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Troy TerryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:10Brandon Montour Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (2)3–2
- P30:46Andre Burakovsky Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jared McCann (13), Ryker Evans (10)2–2
- P26:17Frank Vatrano Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Olen Zellweger (6), Troy Terry (8)1–2
- P115:59Trevor Zegras Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Brian Dumoulin (6)1–1
- P17:12Shane Wright Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (6), Ryker Evans (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:12Shane Wright Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (6), Ryker Evans (9)SEA 1 – 0 ANA · SEA 58% → 73% +14SEA 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P115:59Trevor Zegras Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Brian Dumoulin (6)SEA 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 27% → 42% +16ANA 27% → 42%+16 pts
- P26:17Frank Vatrano Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Olen Zellweger (6), Troy Terry (8)SEA 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 43% → 63% +19ANA 43% → 63%+19 pts
- P30:46Andre Burakovsky Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jared McCann (13), Ryker Evans (10)SEA 2 – 2 ANA · SEA 30% → 55% +25SEA 30% → 55%+25 pts
- P31:10Brandon Montour Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (2)SEA 3 – 2 ANA · SEA 55% → 78% +23SEA 55% → 78%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML SEA -155 / ANA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -143
- ANA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 2.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +8 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +7 Elo | SEA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.526th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 44.5%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 4–626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–9 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13 | 5–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–0 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.