Seattle Kraken at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals2
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints3
Sharks- Klim KostinGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- Klim KostinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:13Jake Walman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–8
- P37:37Ethan Cardwell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (4), Henry Thrun (8)5–7
- P219:43Yanni Gourde Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (12), Brandon Tanev (5)5–6
- P214:03Macklin Celebrini Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (10)4–6
- P213:10Mikael Granlund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (2), Will Smith (6)4–5
- P28:24Jake Walman Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (18), Macklin Celebrini (5)4–4
- P27:20Shane Wright Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (14), Ryker Evans (11)4–3
- P22:45Will Smith Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (16)3–3
- P119:16Shane Wright Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (7), Chandler Stephenson (13)3–2
- P116:58Chandler Stephenson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jaden Schwartz (9)2–2
- P116:25Klim Kostin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (9), William Eklund (17)1–2
- P13:03Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (2)1–1
- P12:07Timothy Liljegren Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (8), Alexander Wennberg (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:20Shane Wright Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (14), Ryker Evans (11)SEA 4 – 3 SJ · SEA 56% → 74% +18SEA 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P28:24Jake Walman Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (18), Macklin Celebrini (5)SEA 4 – 4 SJ · SJ 26% → 44% +18SJ 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P213:10Mikael Granlund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (2), Will Smith (6)SEA 4 – 5 SJ · SJ 45% → 66% +21SJ 45% → 66%+21 pts
- P219:43Yanni Gourde Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (12), Brandon Tanev (5)SEA 5 – 6 SJ · SEA 13% → 30% +18SEA 13% → 30%+18 pts
- P37:37Ethan Cardwell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (4), Henry Thrun (8)SEA 5 – 7 SJ · SJ 76% → 94% +17SJ 76% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -150 / SJ +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -138
- SJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 2.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +1 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.930th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 46.6%28th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 5–724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–11 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | — |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–2 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.