Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists3
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- Will SmithPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:48Adam Gaudette Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (19), Brady Tkachuk (14)4–3
- P312:32Will Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (8), Timothy Liljegren (1)3–3
- P34:48Macklin Celebrini Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (16), Jake Walman (13)3–2
- P215:22Tyler Kleven Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (11)3–1
- P29:19Mario Ferraro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (5), Klim Kostin (1)2–1
- P113:56Josh Norris Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (14), Tim Stützle (18)2–0
- P14:35Adam Gaudette Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Tim Stützle (17), Brady Tkachuk (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:35Adam Gaudette Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Tim Stützle (17), Brady Tkachuk (13)OTT 1 – 0 SJ · OTT 68% → 80% +12OTT 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P215:22Tyler Kleven Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (11)OTT 3 – 1 SJ · OTT 81% → 93% +12OTT 81% → 93%+12 pts
- P34:48Macklin Celebrini Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (16), Jake Walman (13)OTT 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 4% → 17% +12SJ 4% → 17%+12 pts
- P312:32Will Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (8), Timothy Liljegren (1)OTT 3 – 3 SJ · SJ 11% → 43% +32SJ 11% → 43%+32 pts
- P315:48Adam Gaudette Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (19), Brady Tkachuk (14)OTT 4 – 3 SJ · OTT 55% → 93% +38OTT 55% → 93%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 69%
- ML OTT -250 / SJ +210
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 58.6%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -221
- SJ +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −7 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +60 Elo | OTT 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 66.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.930th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.5% | Shot share | 45.5%29th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–12 | 15–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | — |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.