Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- William EklundAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:39Luke Kunin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–7
- P310:46Alexander Wennberg Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (12)2–6
- P33:43Macklin Celebrini Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (15), Will Smith (4)2–5
- P32:14Timothy Liljegren Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (3)2–4
- P31:03Macklin Celebrini Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Henry Thrun (7), Jan Rutta (2)2–3
- P213:59Fabian Zetterlund Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (14), Macklin Celebrini (4)2–2
- P28:58Anze Kopitar Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (11), Warren Foegele (5)2–1
- P22:32Brandt Clarke Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (10), Anze Kopitar (19)1–1
- P11:47Nico Sturm Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (4), Yaroslav Askarov (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:32Brandt Clarke Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (10), Anze Kopitar (19)LA 1 – 1 SJ · LA 46% → 64% +18LA 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P28:58Anze Kopitar Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (11), Warren Foegele (5)LA 2 – 1 SJ · LA 63% → 80% +17LA 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P213:59Fabian Zetterlund Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (14), Macklin Celebrini (4)LA 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 19% → 38% +18SJ 19% → 38%+18 pts
- P31:03Macklin Celebrini Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Henry Thrun (7), Jan Rutta (2)LA 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 40% → 65% +25SJ 40% → 65%+25 pts
- P32:14Timothy Liljegren Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (3)LA 2 – 4 SJ · SJ 66% → 86% +20SJ 66% → 86%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 68%
- ML LA -240 / SJ +200
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- LA: Elo 61.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -212
- SJ +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.3 – 2.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +19 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +83 Elo | LA 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.429th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.231st of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 45.5%29th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–7 | Road vs home | 4–626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–11 | 14–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | — |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–2 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.