San Jose Sharks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Timothy LiljegrenAssists1
- Mario FerraroPoints1
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:27Jared McCann Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (13), Brandon Montour (9)4–2
- P210:17Jaden Schwartz Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (7), Oliver Bjorkstrand (8)4–1
- P29:45Will Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (18), Klim Kostin (3)4–0
- P28:59Cody Ceci Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (6), Jake Walman (15)3–0
- P21:51Luke Kunin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (3), Jake Walman (14)2–0
- P116:54Mario Ferraro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (17), Timothy Liljegren (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:54Mario Ferraro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (17), Timothy Liljegren (2)SJ 1 – 0 SEA · SJ 36% → 53% +17SJ 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P21:51Luke Kunin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (3), Jake Walman (14)SJ 2 – 0 SEA · SJ 54% → 72% +17SJ 54% → 72%+17 pts
- P28:59Cody Ceci Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (6), Jake Walman (15)SJ 3 – 0 SEA · SJ 76% → 89% +13SJ 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P29:45Will Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (18), Klim Kostin (3)SJ 4 – 0 SEA · SJ 89% → 96% +7SJ 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P36:27Jared McCann Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (13), Brandon Montour (9)SJ 4 – 2 SEA · SEA 2% → 9% +7SEA 2% → 9%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 67%
- ML SJ +190 / SEA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 65.9%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -201
- SJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.3 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +6 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +115 Elo | SEA 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–11 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–9 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–2 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.