Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes
Panthers- Aaron EkbladGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Aaron EkbladPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:01Evan Rodrigues Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Nate Schmidt (5), Carter Verhaeghe (13)0–6
- P311:48Adam Boqvist Goal (1) Backhand, assists: A.J. Greer (5)0–5
- P311:37Aleksander Barkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Sam Reinhart (16)0–4
- P38:19Sam Bennett Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (8), Anton Lundell (11)0–3
- P219:59Mackie Samoskevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (13), Aleksander Barkov (18)0–2
- P26:42Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:42Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 48% → 67% +19FLA 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P219:59Mackie Samoskevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (13), Aleksander Barkov (18)CAR 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 72% → 89% +17FLA 72% → 89%+17 pts
- P38:19Sam Bennett Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (8), Anton Lundell (11)CAR 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 95% → >99% +5FLA 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P311:37Aleksander Barkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Sam Reinhart (16)CAR 0 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P311:48Adam Boqvist Goal (1) Backhand, assists: A.J. Greer (5)CAR 0 – 5 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 53%
- ML CAR -125 / FLA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 46.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -114
- FLA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | FLA and CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −23 | −15 | CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +25 Elo | FLA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%24th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 8th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 6–615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–9 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–8 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–2 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.