Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Senators- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:17Josh Norris Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (18), Nick Jensen (9)1–2
- P36:15Alex DeBrincat Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (7), Vladimir Tarasenko (8)1–1
- P112:14Josh Norris Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (16), Drake Batherson (17)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:14Josh Norris Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (16), Drake Batherson (17)DET 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 61% → 75% +14OTT 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P36:15Alex DeBrincat Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (7), Vladimir Tarasenko (8)DET 1 – 1 OTT · DET 18% → 44% +26DET 18% → 44%+26 pts
- P319:17Josh Norris Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (18), Nick Jensen (9)DET 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 51% → >99% +49OTT 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 62%
- ML DET +155 / OTT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 58.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -166
- DET +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −28 | +3 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.71 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +56 Elo | OTT 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 63.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.7% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%29th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 21st of 325–7 | Road vs home | 6–613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–11 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.