Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints1
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:26Trevor Moore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (21), Vladislav Gavrikov (9)2–5
- P316:14Adrian Kempe Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (7), Quinton Byfield (8)2–4
- P31:37Anze Kopitar Goal (8) Batted, assists: Trevor Moore (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (8)2–3
- P27:26Kevin Fiala Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P26:11Adam Gaudette Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (11), Jacob Bernard-Docker (3)2–1
- P119:14Tim Stützle Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (15), Brady Tkachuk (15)1–1
- P11:57Alex Laferriere Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Phillip Danault (11), Jordan Spence (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:57Alex Laferriere Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Phillip Danault (11), Jordan Spence (4)OTT 0 – 1 LA · LA 51% → 65% +14LA 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P119:14Tim Stützle Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (15), Brady Tkachuk (15)OTT 1 – 1 LA · OTT 32% → 49% +17OTT 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P26:11Adam Gaudette Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (11), Jacob Bernard-Docker (3)OTT 2 – 1 LA · OTT 49% → 68% +19OTT 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P27:26Kevin Fiala Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 2 – 2 LA · LA 32% → 51% +19LA 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P31:37Anze Kopitar Goal (8) Batted, assists: Trevor Moore (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (8)OTT 2 – 3 LA · LA 51% → 75% +24LA 51% → 75%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 51%
- ML OTT -105 / LA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- LA: Elo 57.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -104
- OTT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +10 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +51 Elo | LA 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 53.8%3rd of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–13 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–2 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.