Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Nick CousinsGoals1
- Nick JensenAssists1
- Nick CousinsPoints1
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals2
- Troy TerryAssists3
- Frank VatranoPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Troy Terry Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P35:46Nick Cousins Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (3)3–3
- P34:37Frank Vatrano Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (13), Ryan Strome (7)2–3
- P20:37Brady Tkachuk Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (12), Nick Jensen (8)2–2
- P119:54Jackson LaCombe Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (12), Frank Vatrano (6)1–2
- P117:36Brady Tkachuk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (20), Drake Batherson (16)1–1
- P114:45Frank Vatrano Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (6), Troy Terry (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:36Brady Tkachuk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (20), Drake Batherson (16)OTT 1 – 1 ANA · OTT 41% → 58% +17OTT 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P119:54Jackson LaCombe Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (12), Frank Vatrano (6)OTT 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 42% → 60% +18ANA 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P20:37Brady Tkachuk Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (12), Nick Jensen (8)OTT 2 – 2 ANA · OTT 40% → 58% +18OTT 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P34:37Frank Vatrano Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (13), Ryan Strome (7)OTT 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 45% → 72% +27ANA 45% → 72%+27 pts
- P35:46Nick Cousins Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (3)OTT 3 – 3 ANA · OTT 27% → 55% +28OTT 27% → 55%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML OTT -165 / ANA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 46.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -149
- ANA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +9 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +27 Elo | ANA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 45.2%30th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–7 | Road vs home | 4–831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–14 | 16–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 6–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 0–2 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.