Seattle Kraken at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Andre BurakovskyPoints1
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Brenden DillonAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P30:53Timo Meier Goal (9) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P28:03Jesper Bratt Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (24), Brenden Dillon (6)2–2
- P23:41Shane Wright Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (3), Jaden Schwartz (11)2–1
- P112:27Luke Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (23), Jesper Bratt (24)1–1
- P110:16Andre Burakovsky Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:16Andre Burakovsky Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (6)SEA 1 – 0 NJ · SEA 32% → 47% +15SEA 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P112:27Luke Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (23), Jesper Bratt (24)SEA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 52% → 68% +16NJ 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P23:41Shane Wright Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (3), Jaden Schwartz (11)SEA 2 – 1 NJ · SEA 34% → 52% +18SEA 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P28:03Jesper Bratt Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (24), Brenden Dillon (6)SEA 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 45% → 65% +20NJ 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P30:53Timo Meier Goal (9) Backhand, assists: noneSEA 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 62% → 83% +21NJ 62% → 83%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 70%
- ML SEA +220 / NJ -270
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 68.8%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- NJ -234
- SEA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 3.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +9 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +137 Elo | NJ 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 71.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 5–724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–13 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.