Seattle Kraken at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists3
- Vince DunnPoints3
Islanders- Maxim TsyplakovGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Noah DobsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:20Jaden Schwartz Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Brandon Tanev (6), Adam Larsson (5)5–2
- P315:37Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Pulock (9), Bo Horvat (13)4–2
- P311:57Noah Dobson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (8), Anders Lee (10)4–1
- P213:05Shane Wright Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (11)4–0
- P23:55Vince Dunn Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (4), Matty Beniers (10)3–0
- P116:58Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (5), Chandler Stephenson (15)2–0
- P12:48Tye Kartye Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (4), Adam Larsson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:48Tye Kartye Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (4), Adam Larsson (3)SEA 1 – 0 NYI · SEA 46% → 61% +15SEA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P116:58Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (5), Chandler Stephenson (15)SEA 2 – 0 NYI · SEA 63% → 78% +15SEA 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P23:55Vince Dunn Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (4), Matty Beniers (10)SEA 3 – 0 NYI · SEA 80% → 91% +10SEA 80% → 91%+10 pts
- P213:05Shane Wright Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (11)SEA 4 – 0 NYI · SEA 94% → 98% +4SEA 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P315:37Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Pulock (9), Bo Horvat (13)SEA 4 – 2 NYI · NYI <1% → <1% +0NYI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 54%
- ML SEA +110 / NYI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- NYI: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +36 Elo | NYI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 21st of 325–7 | Road vs home | 4–728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–13 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–0 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.