New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:39Nick Suzuki Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mike Matheson (13), Cole Caufield (7)1–2
- P218:55Anders Lee Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Wahlstrom (2), Noah Dobson (10)1–1
- P27:23Patrik Laine Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (16), Nick Suzuki (16)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:23Patrik Laine Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (16), Nick Suzuki (16)NYI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 46% → 65% +19MTL 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P218:55Anders Lee Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Wahlstrom (2), Noah Dobson (10)NYI 1 – 1 MTL · NYI 30% → 53% +24NYI 30% → 53%+24 pts
- OT2:39Nick Suzuki Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mike Matheson (13), Cole Caufield (7)NYI 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 49% → 97% +48MTL 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 55%
- ML NYI -135 / MTL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- NYI: Elo 49.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 2.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +3 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +2 Elo | MTL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 44.6%31st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 87.8%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 24th of 325–9 | Road vs home | 5–722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–14 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.