Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals2
- Jakob ChychrunAssists2
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints2
Blue Jackets- Sean MonahanAssists1
- Sean MonahanPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:23Aliaksei Protas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (27), Jakob Chychrun (10)2–1
- P30:31Aliaksei Protas Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (16), Jakob Chychrun (9)1–1
- P214:12Zach Werenski Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (8), Sean Monahan (16)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:12Zach Werenski Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (8), Sean Monahan (16)WSH 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 42% → 64% +22CBJ 42% → 64%+22 pts
- P30:31Aliaksei Protas Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (16), Jakob Chychrun (9)WSH 1 – 1 CBJ · WSH 32% → 57% +25WSH 32% → 57%+25 pts
- OT2:23Aliaksei Protas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (27), Jakob Chychrun (10)WSH 2 – 1 CBJ · WSH 52% → 96% +44WSH 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML WSH -175 / CBJ +150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -159
- CBJ +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −7 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +39 Elo | WSH 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 1st of 3211–2 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–8 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–0 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.