Columbus Blue Jackets at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals2
- James van RiemsdykAssists2
- Kent JohnsonPoints2
Jets- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:38Sean Kuraly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P39:42Kent Johnson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (4), Ivan Provorov (8)3–1
- P37:15Kent Johnson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (15), James van Riemsdyk (3)2–1
- P213:53Dmitri Voronkov Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Kirill Marchenko (16), Zach Werenski (20)1–1
- P211:51Kyle Connor Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (24), Mark Scheifele (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:51Kyle Connor Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (24), Mark Scheifele (17)CBJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 56% → 75% +19WPG 56% → 75%+19 pts
- P213:53Dmitri Voronkov Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Kirill Marchenko (16), Zach Werenski (20)CBJ 1 – 1 WPG · CBJ 24% → 44% +20CBJ 24% → 44%+20 pts
- P37:15Kent Johnson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (15), James van Riemsdyk (3)CBJ 2 – 1 WPG · CBJ 46% → 75% +30CBJ 46% → 75%+30 pts
- P39:42Kent Johnson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (4), Ivan Provorov (8)CBJ 3 – 1 WPG · CBJ 78% → 95% +17CBJ 78% → 95%+17 pts
- P318:38Sean Kuraly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 4 – 1 WPG · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 59%
- ML CBJ +135 / WPG -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 61.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- WPG -143
- CBJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −26 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.64 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +79 Elo | WPG 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 61.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 31st of 323–11 | Road vs home | 9–22nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–12 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 11–8 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–8 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–3 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.