St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Neal PionkAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:21Robert Thomas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (5), Brandon Saad (6)4–1
- P315:45Mark Scheifele Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (18), Josh Morrissey (21)3–1
- P36:38Jordan Kyrou Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (7), Scott Perunovich (4)3–0
- P218:43Dylan Holloway Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (9), Scott Perunovich (3)2–0
- P218:04Jordan Kyrou Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Brayden Schenn (9), Philip Broberg (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:04Jordan Kyrou Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Brayden Schenn (9), Philip Broberg (8)STL 1 – 0 WPG · STL 40% → 64% +24STL 40% → 64%+24 pts
- P218:43Dylan Holloway Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (9), Scott Perunovich (3)STL 2 – 0 WPG · STL 65% → 84% +19STL 65% → 84%+19 pts
- P36:38Jordan Kyrou Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (7), Scott Perunovich (4)STL 3 – 0 WPG · STL 91% → 98% +7STL 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P315:45Mark Scheifele Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (18), Josh Morrissey (21)STL 3 – 1 WPG · WPG <1% → <1% +0WPG <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P316:21Robert Thomas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (5), Brandon Saad (6)STL 4 – 1 WPG · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 66%
- ML STL +180 / WPG -215
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 66.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- WPG -191
- STL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +8 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +119 Elo | WPG 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 68.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.22nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.6%20th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 92.2%2nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 15th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 9–12nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–11 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 10–6 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 0–4 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.