Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:28Matvei Michkov Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (17)3–2
- P319:40Jake Neighbours Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (6), Jordan Kyrou (13)2–2
- P312:02Tyson Foerster Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (8), Noah Cates (4)2–1
- P311:11Dylan Holloway Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (8), Matthew Kessel (3)1–1
- P19:15Owen Tippett Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Michkov (10), Morgan Frost (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:15Owen Tippett Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Michkov (10), Morgan Frost (7)PHI 1 – 0 STL · PHI 45% → 61% +16PHI 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P311:11Dylan Holloway Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (8), Matthew Kessel (3)PHI 1 – 1 STL · STL 18% → 52% +34STL 18% → 52%+34 pts
- P312:02Tyson Foerster Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (8), Noah Cates (4)PHI 2 – 1 STL · PHI 48% → 83% +35PHI 48% → 83%+35 pts
- P319:40Jake Neighbours Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (6), Jordan Kyrou (13)PHI 2 – 2 STL · STL <1% → 50% +50STL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0:28Matvei Michkov Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (17)PHI 3 – 2 STL · PHI 49% → 90% +42PHI 49% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML PHI +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- STL: Elo 56.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +2 | PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +44 Elo | STL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.3% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–12 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.