Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals2
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Cole PerfettiPoints2
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals2
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:55Brett Howden Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (7), Shea Theodore (17)3–4
- P38:55Neal Pionk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Kyle Connor (16)3–3
- P34:43Ivan Barbashev Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (28), Pavel Dorofeyev (5)2–3
- P214:28Cole Perfetti Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (20), Vladislav Namestnikov (9)2–2
- P119:44Ivan Barbashev Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (4), Jack Eichel (27)1–2
- P118:13Brett Howden Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P16:57Cole Perfetti Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (19), Nikolaj Ehlers (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:44Ivan Barbashev Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (4), Jack Eichel (27)WPG 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 51% → 68% +17VGK 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P214:28Cole Perfetti Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (20), Vladislav Namestnikov (9)WPG 2 – 2 VGK · WPG 28% → 49% +21WPG 28% → 49%+21 pts
- P34:43Ivan Barbashev Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (28), Pavel Dorofeyev (5)WPG 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 51% → 77% +26VGK 51% → 77%+26 pts
- P38:55Neal Pionk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Kyle Connor (16)WPG 3 – 3 VGK · WPG 19% → 50% +30WPG 19% → 50%+30 pts
- P315:55Brett Howden Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (7), Shea Theodore (17)WPG 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 50% → 92% +42VGK 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML WPG -105 / VGK -115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −24 | +4 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.60 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +24 Elo | VGK 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 4th of 329–4 | Road vs home | 8–24th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–10 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 0–3 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.