Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Haydn FleuryAssists1
- Adam LowryPoints1
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:52Roope Hintz Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (7)1–3
- P312:23Mason Marchment Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (10), Jake Oettinger (1)1–2
- P117:06Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (9), Jason Robertson (9)1–1
- P13:16Adam Lowry Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Haydn Fleury (3), Neal Pionk (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:16Adam Lowry Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Haydn Fleury (3), Neal Pionk (17)WPG 1 – 0 DAL · WPG 42% → 57% +15WPG 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P117:06Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (9), Jason Robertson (9)WPG 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 40% → 57% +17DAL 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P312:23Mason Marchment Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (10), Jake Oettinger (1)WPG 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 53% → 86% +33DAL 53% → 86%+33 pts
- P319:52Roope Hintz Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (7)WPG 1 – 3 DAL · DAL >99% → 100% +0DAL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 58%
- ML WPG +130 / DAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -140
- WPG +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +16 Elo | DAL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 52.6%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 6th of 329–5 | Road vs home | 9–11st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–10 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.