Columbus Blue Jackets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Sean MonahanGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists3
- Damon SeversonPoints3
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:34Dmitri Voronkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (9)6–3
- P310:52Kirill Marchenko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P38:08Nick Foligno Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (6), Connor Bedard (14)4–3
- P33:08Dante Fabbro Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (18), Cole Sillinger (12)4–2
- P24:50Sean Monahan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (4), Zach Werenski (17)3–2
- P23:00Craig Smith Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Taylor Hall (5), Alec Martinez (3)2–2
- P111:23Kent Johnson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (8), Cole Sillinger (11)2–1
- P14:27Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (14), Damon Severson (7)1–1
- P12:59Connor Bedard Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (5), Alex Vlasic (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:59Connor Bedard Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (5), Alex Vlasic (10)CBJ 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 43% → 58% +15CHI 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P14:27Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (14), Damon Severson (7)CBJ 1 – 1 CHI · CBJ 42% → 57% +15CBJ 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P111:23Kent Johnson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (8), Cole Sillinger (11)CBJ 2 – 1 CHI · CBJ 56% → 71% +15CBJ 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P23:00Craig Smith Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Taylor Hall (5), Alec Martinez (3)CBJ 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 27% → 44% +17CHI 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P24:50Sean Monahan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (4), Zach Werenski (17)CBJ 3 – 2 CHI · CBJ 55% → 73% +18CBJ 55% → 73%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 57%
- ML CBJ -145 / CHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- CBJ: Elo 49.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -133
- CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.5 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +9 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +1 Elo | CHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 45.8%29th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–730th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–9 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–7 | 6–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.