Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals2
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Wild- Jared SpurgeonGoals2
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Jared SpurgeonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P217:33Jared Spurgeon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (7), Marcus Foligno (4)2–3
- P210:39Jared Spurgeon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (13), Joel Eriksson Ek (6)2–2
- P210:22Marco Rossi Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Johansson (6), Kirill Kaprizov (22)2–1
- P25:43Ryan Donato Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (9), Connor Bedard (13)2–0
- P12:23Ryan Donato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:23Ryan Donato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (5)CHI 1 – 0 MIN · CHI 32% → 47% +14CHI 32% → 47%+14 pts
- P25:43Ryan Donato Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (9), Connor Bedard (13)CHI 2 – 0 MIN · CHI 55% → 73% +18CHI 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P210:22Marco Rossi Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Johansson (6), Kirill Kaprizov (22)CHI 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 24% → 42% +19MIN 24% → 42%+19 pts
- P210:39Jared Spurgeon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (13), Joel Eriksson Ek (6)CHI 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 42% → 63% +21MIN 42% → 63%+21 pts
- P217:33Jared Spurgeon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (7), Marcus Foligno (4)CHI 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 61% → 81% +20MIN 61% → 81%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 68%
- ML CHI +200 / MIN -240
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -212
- CHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.2 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −15 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +105 Elo | MIN 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.8% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 92.3%2nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 26th of 324–9 | Road vs home | 4–414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–11 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–16 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.