Calgary Flames at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Dustin WolfAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals2
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:20Kirill Marchenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (5), Zach Werenski (16)2–5
- P311:00Nazem Kadri Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (7), Dustin Wolf (2)2–4
- P34:46Adam Fantilli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (14), Dante Fabbro (3)1–4
- P214:59Blake Coleman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (9), Kevin Bahl (7)1–3
- P24:43Zach Werenski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (13), Dmitri Voronkov (4)0–3
- P116:42Kent Johnson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (10)0–2
- P111:56Adam Fantilli Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:56Adam Fantilli Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (6)CGY 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 66% +16CBJ 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P116:42Kent Johnson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (10)CGY 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 67% → 80% +14CBJ 67% → 80%+14 pts
- P24:43Zach Werenski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (13), Dmitri Voronkov (4)CGY 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 83% → 92% +9CBJ 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P214:59Blake Coleman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (9), Kevin Bahl (7)CGY 1 – 3 CBJ · CGY 4% → 13% +8CGY 4% → 13%+8 pts
- P34:46Adam Fantilli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (14), Dante Fabbro (3)CGY 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 93% → 99% +6CBJ 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 50%
- ML CGY -110 / CBJ -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- CBJ: Elo 49.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -100
- CGY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.3 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −1 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +5 Elo | CGY 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 52.4%8th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 87.9%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–8 | Road vs home | 7–48th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–10 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–16 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–2 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.