Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Mason AppletonAssists1
- Mason AppletonPoints2
Blackhawks- Alec MartinezGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Alec MartinezPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:19Mason Appleton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P310:18Mark Scheifele Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (18)3–2
- P213:10Nino Niederreiter Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (8), Haydn Fleury (5)2–2
- P119:47Alec Martinez Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (4), Jason Dickinson (4)1–2
- P113:31Gabriel Vilardi Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Logan Stanley (3), Kyle Connor (17)1–1
- P19:01Alex Vlasic Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (7), Connor Bedard (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:01Alex Vlasic Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (7), Connor Bedard (15)WPG 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 37% → 52% +16CHI 37% → 52%+16 pts
- P113:31Gabriel Vilardi Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Logan Stanley (3), Kyle Connor (17)WPG 1 – 1 CHI · WPG 46% → 63% +16WPG 46% → 63%+16 pts
- P119:47Alec Martinez Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (4), Jason Dickinson (4)WPG 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 38% → 56% +18CHI 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P213:10Nino Niederreiter Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (8), Haydn Fleury (5)WPG 2 – 2 CHI · WPG 38% → 60% +21WPG 38% → 60%+21 pts
- P310:18Mark Scheifele Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (18)WPG 3 – 2 CHI · WPG 56% → 85% +30WPG 56% → 85%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 64%
- ML WPG -200 / CHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 65.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -180
- CHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.2 – 2.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +5 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +110 Elo | WPG 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 67.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.728th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.3% | Shot share | 46.1%29th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.9%7th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 5th of 3210–6 | Road vs home | 4–728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–13 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 8–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.