Boston Bruins at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- Mason LohreiAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists2
- Connor MurphyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:02Morgan Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (7), Mason Lohrei (10)4–2
- P218:23Jason Dickinson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (3), Connor Murphy (10)3–2
- P25:03Brad Marchand Goal (10) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (17), Jordan Oesterle (3)3–1
- P22:58Brad Marchand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (16), Mason Lohrei (9)2–1
- P112:17Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (6), Jordan Oesterle (2)1–1
- P11:23Alex Vlasic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (4), Connor Murphy (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23Alex Vlasic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (4), Connor Murphy (9)BOS 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 43% → 58% +15CHI 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P112:17Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (6), Jordan Oesterle (2)BOS 1 – 1 CHI · BOS 40% → 56% +16BOS 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P22:58Brad Marchand Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (16), Mason Lohrei (9)BOS 2 – 1 CHI · BOS 56% → 73% +17BOS 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P218:23Jason Dickinson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (3), Connor Murphy (10)BOS 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 9% → 24% +14CHI 9% → 24%+14 pts
- P35:02Morgan Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (7), Mason Lohrei (10)BOS 4 – 2 CHI · BOS 79% → 94% +15BOS 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BOS -145 / CHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +24 Elo | BOS 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 46.1%29th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 17th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 4–626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–20 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 7–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.