Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Lukas ReichelGoals1
- Pat MaroonAssists1
- Lukas ReichelPoints1
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Philippe MyersAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:15Matthew Knies Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (24), Philippe Myers (1)1–4
- P33:47Fraser Minten Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (4), Steven Lorentz (2)1–3
- P33:26Lukas Reichel Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Patrick Maroon (7), TJ Brodie (5)1–2
- P211:59John Tavares Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (23), Pontus Holmberg (4)0–2
- P115:35Auston Matthews Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (11), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:35Auston Matthews Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (11), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8)CHI 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 74% → 86% +12TOR 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P211:59John Tavares Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (23), Pontus Holmberg (4)CHI 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 85% → 94% +9TOR 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P33:26Lukas Reichel Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Patrick Maroon (7), TJ Brodie (5)CHI 1 – 2 TOR · CHI 4% → 14% +10CHI 4% → 14%+10 pts
- P33:47Fraser Minten Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (4), Steven Lorentz (2)CHI 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 86% → 96% +10TOR 86% → 96%+10 pts
- P318:15Matthew Knies Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (24), Philippe Myers (1)CHI 1 – 4 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 77%
- ML CHI +320 / TOR -425
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 76.3%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -340
- CHI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 1.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +11 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +203 Elo | TOR 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 74.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.8% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 27th of 324–10 | Road vs home | 10–34th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–12 | 14–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–17 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.