Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Chris TanevGoals1
- Chris TanevAssists1
- Chris TanevPoints2
Lightning- Cam AtkinsonGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Cam AtkinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:44William Nylander Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (8), Matthew Knies (5)5–3
- P317:38Cam Atkinson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Hagel (19), Victor Hedman (18)4–3
- P315:19Jake Guentzel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (18), Victor Hedman (17)4–2
- P311:21Michael Eyssimont Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (6)4–1
- P218:59John Tavares Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (22), Morgan Rielly (10)4–0
- P28:39Nicholas Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (2), Simon Benoit (3)3–0
- P28:06Chris Tanev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (21), Pontus Holmberg (3)2–0
- P17:13Matthew Knies Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Chris Tanev (5), Auston Matthews (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:13Matthew Knies Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Chris Tanev (5), Auston Matthews (7)TOR 1 – 0 TB · TOR 59% → 73% +14TOR 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P28:06Chris Tanev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (21), Pontus Holmberg (3)TOR 2 – 0 TB · TOR 75% → 88% +13TOR 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P28:39Nicholas Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (2), Simon Benoit (3)TOR 3 – 0 TB · TOR 88% → 96% +7TOR 88% → 96%+7 pts
- P218:59John Tavares Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (22), Morgan Rielly (10)TOR 4 – 0 TB · TOR 98% → >99% +2TOR 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P317:38Cam Atkinson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Hagel (19), Victor Hedman (18)TOR 4 – 3 TB · TB <1% → 3% +3TB <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML TOR -165 / TB +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 46.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 2.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +6 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.78th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 7–49th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–9 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.