Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Luke GlendeningAssists1
- Luke GlendeningPoints1
Predators- Roman JosiGoals2
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:01Brayden Point Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (22)3–2
- P211:20Roman Josi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (3), Luke Evangelista (7)2–2
- P28:18Brandon Hagel Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (5), Victor Hedman (16)2–1
- P24:06Anthony Cirelli Goal (10) Batted, assists: Luke Glendening (1)1–1
- P11:23Roman Josi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23Roman Josi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (5)TB 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 54% → 68% +14NSH 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P24:06Anthony Cirelli Goal (10) Batted, assists: Luke Glendening (1)TB 1 – 1 NSH · TB 29% → 47% +18TB 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P28:18Brandon Hagel Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (5), Victor Hedman (16)TB 2 – 1 NSH · TB 47% → 66% +20TB 47% → 66%+20 pts
- P211:20Roman Josi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (3), Luke Evangelista (7)TB 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 32% → 53% +20NSH 32% → 53%+20 pts
- OT1:01Brayden Point Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (22)TB 3 – 2 NSH · TB 49% → 92% +43TB 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 54%
- ML TB +110 / NSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NSH: Elo 52.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +1 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +20 Elo | NSH 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 5–725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–13 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.