Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Connor CliftonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:59Adam Lowry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (23), Gabriel Vilardi (9)3–2
- P23:06Kyle Connor Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (16), Josh Morrissey (22)2–2
- P111:29Dylan Cozens Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Zach Benson (5), Connor Clifton (6)1–2
- P14:14Gabriel Vilardi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Haydn Fleury (4), Mark Scheifele (15)1–1
- P13:27Tage Thompson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (11), Alex Tuch (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:27Tage Thompson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (11), Alex Tuch (16)WPG 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 43% → 58% +15BUF 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P14:14Gabriel Vilardi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Haydn Fleury (4), Mark Scheifele (15)WPG 1 – 1 BUF · WPG 42% → 57% +15WPG 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P111:29Dylan Cozens Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Zach Benson (5), Connor Clifton (6)WPG 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 44% → 60% +16BUF 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P23:06Kyle Connor Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (16), Josh Morrissey (22)WPG 2 – 2 BUF · WPG 37% → 56% +18WPG 37% → 56%+18 pts
- OT3:59Adam Lowry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (23), Gabriel Vilardi (9)WPG 3 – 2 BUF · WPG 51% → >99% +49WPG 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 57%
- ML WPG -145 / BUF +125
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- WPG: Elo 53.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -133
- BUF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +6 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +25 Elo | WPG 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.3% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 6th of 329–6 | Road vs home | 6–719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–12 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–0 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.