Columbus Blue Jackets at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Flames- Kevin BahlGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists2
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:40Yegor Sharangovich Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (8), Blake Coleman (6)0–3
- P317:53Kevin Bahl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (11), Jonathan Huberdeau (7)0–2
- P210:14Rasmus Andersson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (7), Nazem Kadri (8)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:14Rasmus Andersson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (7), Nazem Kadri (8)CBJ 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 74% +19CGY 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P317:53Kevin Bahl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (11), Jonathan Huberdeau (7)CBJ 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 98% → >99% +2CGY 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:40Yegor Sharangovich Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (8), Blake Coleman (6)CBJ 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 100% → 100% +0CGY 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 57%
- ML CBJ +125 / CGY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CGY: Elo 54.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CGY -133
- CBJ +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −9 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +32 Elo | CGY 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 49.2%22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.9%8th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–8 | Road vs home | 9–34th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–9 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–7 | 9–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–0 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.