Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Penguins- Kris LetangGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists2
- Kris LetangPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:23Blake Lizotte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (5)2–6
- P315:05Nazem Kadri Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (6), Kevin Bahl (8)2–5
- P314:27Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (7), Martin Pospisil (8)1–5
- P37:59Kris Letang Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (10), Kevin Hayes (2)0–5
- P35:25Rickard Rakell Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (17), Bryan Rust (5)0–4
- P29:02Philip Tomasino Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (6), Michael Bunting (5)0–3
- P22:40Michael Bunting Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (9), Kris Letang (5)0–2
- P117:14Anthony Beauvillier Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Blake Lizotte (1), Michael Bunting (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:14Anthony Beauvillier Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Blake Lizotte (1), Michael Bunting (4)CGY 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 50% → 67% +17PIT 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P22:40Michael Bunting Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (9), Kris Letang (5)CGY 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 68% → 82% +14PIT 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P29:02Philip Tomasino Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (6), Michael Bunting (5)CGY 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 85% → 94% +9PIT 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P35:25Rickard Rakell Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (17), Bryan Rust (5)CGY 0 – 4 PIT · PIT 99% → >99% +1PIT 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P37:59Kris Letang Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (10), Kevin Hayes (2)CGY 0 – 5 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML CGY -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- CGY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.3 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −2 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +29 Elo | PIT 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.332nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 48.2%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 88.7%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–9 | Road vs home | 5–828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–11 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 8–16 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.