Columbus Blue Jackets at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Cole SillingerGoals1
- Cole SillingerAssists1
- Cole SillingerPoints2
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Zach HymanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:37Leon Draisaitl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (23), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (10)3–6
- P36:10Cole Sillinger Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (1), Jake Christiansen (6)3–5
- P218:30Jeff Skinner Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Adam Henrique (7), Mattias Janmark (10)2–5
- P210:02Damon Severson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (13), Adam Fantilli (8)2–4
- P26:53Zach Hyman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (9), Connor McDavid (22)1–4
- P24:02Mattias Ekholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (5), Adam Henrique (6)1–3
- P22:22Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (21), Evan Bouchard (14)1–2
- P19:46Zach Hyman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (20), Evan Bouchard (13)1–1
- P12:31Kevin Labanc Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Pyyhtia (1), Zach Werenski (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:31Kevin Labanc Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Pyyhtia (1), Zach Werenski (19)CBJ 1 – 0 EDM · CBJ 29% → 42% +14CBJ 29% → 42%+14 pts
- P19:46Zach Hyman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (20), Evan Bouchard (13)CBJ 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 55% → 70% +15EDM 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P22:22Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (21), Evan Bouchard (14)CBJ 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 68% → 82% +14EDM 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P24:02Mattias Ekholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (5), Adam Henrique (6)CBJ 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 82% → 92% +10EDM 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P26:53Zach Hyman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (9), Connor McDavid (22)CBJ 1 – 4 EDM · EDM 92% → 97% +5EDM 92% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 72%
- ML CBJ +240 / EDM -295
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 67.1%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- EDM -254
- CBJ +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.6 – 3.9 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +4 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +124 Elo | EDM 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 68.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–9 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–10 | 8–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–8 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–1 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.