Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors VGK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P110:47Ivan Barbashev Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:47Ivan Barbashev Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 45% → 61% +16VGK 45% → 61%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 55%
- ML EDM -135 / VGK +115
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 47.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -124
- VGK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +18 Elo | VGK 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.9% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 5th of 328–4 | Road vs home | 9–35th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–16 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–14 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–2 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.