Utah Hockey Club at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Nick SchmaltzGoals2
- Barrett HaytonAssists2
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Golden KnightsScoring summary
- P25:28Nick Schmaltz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (14), Dylan Guenther (11)6–0
- P21:02Michael Carcone Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (4), Michael Kesselring (9)5–0
- P118:44Logan Cooley Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Olli Maatta (2), Mikhail Sergachev (10)4–0
- P110:35Nick Schmaltz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (15), Barrett Hayton (6)3–0
- P19:26Alexander Kerfoot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P15:33Clayton Keller Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:33Clayton Keller Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (5)UTAH 1 – 0 VGK · UTAH 42% → 58% +15UTAH 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P19:26Alexander Kerfoot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTAH 2 – 0 VGK · UTAH 58% → 73% +14UTAH 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P110:35Nick Schmaltz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (15), Barrett Hayton (6)UTAH 3 – 0 VGK · UTAH 73% → 85% +11UTAH 73% → 85%+11 pts
- P118:44Logan Cooley Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Olli Maatta (2), Mikhail Sergachev (10)UTAH 4 – 0 VGK · UTAH 88% → 94% +7UTAH 88% → 94%+7 pts
- P21:02Michael Carcone Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (4), Michael Kesselring (9)UTAH 5 – 0 VGK · UTAH 95% → 98% +3UTAH 95% → 98%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML UTAH +130 / VGK -150
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 60.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -138
- UTAH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | VGK and UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −6 | UTAH: Jaxson Stauber (no track record yet) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +75 Elo | VGK 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–8 | Road vs home | 9–23rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–10 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.